The S&P Merval index rose 6.6% to 38,581.60 units, led by the improvement in the financial segment paper, after accumulating a 10.5% rise last week. The country risk fell 6.35% to 3,111 units. The overall volume of transactions reached 1.46 billions of pesos ($ 20.95 million).
The Country Risk team of BMI expects Argentina to fall into a further recession due to the coronavirus— with real GDP growth contracting by 5.2% in 2020—as we expect the deterioration of global demand and the spread of the disease locally will lead to sharper declines in consumption, investment and exports than we previously anticipated – further weighing on electricity consumption. We now forecast electricity consumption will decline by 4.7% and generation will decrease by 2.5% in 2020, before rebounding to 3.5% and 2.5% growth in 2021, respectively.
The blue dollar (of the parallel market) does not stop its upward march, and this Monday scored a new historical maximum of 124.50 pesos, amid the latest obstacles to the purchase of dollars in the formal circuits.
The food company Molinos Rio de la Plata presented yesterday its financial results for the first quarter of the year, and reported a net loss of 114 million pesos ($1.7 mn), due to the impossibility of transferring the increase in costs to the prices of its product portfolio. Molinos has been presenting negative balances for at least three years.
May began with a monetary expansion of more than 544 billion pesos. The monetary base returned to more than 2.4 trillion pesos. The high liquidity of the financial system (more than 64%, according to the BCRA indicator) seems to have a large encapsulated portion within the BCRA, wandering between the Passes, the Leliqs and the Encaje.