Argentina is among the six countries that will suffer the most significant recessions as a result of the crisis unleashed by the coronavirus: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 9.9% contraction by 2020. By 2021 the Argentine economy will be one of the least recovered with a 3.9% improvement.
July 24 is the new deadline for reaching an agreement with foreign bondholders; the national government should pay $944 million in debt interest under international legislation. But it will not. Thus, new securities will be added to the default in which Argentina entered on May 22 after did not pay $503 million in interest on three Global bonds.
The investment bank Morgan Stanley decided to keep Argentina as an emerging market. It means that, by maintaining the category, there will be more money from abroad willing to come in and buy Argentine stocks and bonds. The problem, in any case, is not how they qualify from abroad, but how the government organizes the resources of the State and arbitrates the economy.
Argentina’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) carried out by the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL) showed a 19.9% decline in May. The seasonally adjusted monthly fall was 3.7%, and the accumulated contraction of the first five months of the year reached 10.6% year-on-year. The decrease in automotive production, non-metallic minerals, steel production and fuel refining, led the fall.
Exports from the soybean complex this marketing year could fall by $1.8 billion, while the national government’s withholding tax revenues would be reduced by more than $1 billion as a result of a smaller harvest and low international prices. It was estimated by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) in its oilseed campaign closing report.