The Vaca Muerta project has shown that it can work, at least partially, with international oil prices on the order of $60 a barrel (yesterday, the Brent closed at $42.72). Now that it has fallen from that value, most of the wells have been closed. The same happens in the case of gas which, with current international values, does not work, is not competitive. The refineries should temporarily fix their refining margins according to similar values in force in the world, and the oil provinces should channel their budget balance requirements through the National Budget and not through the mechanism of the Creole barrel.
The dynamics of the monetary issue, the intervention of the BCRA on the financial margin, the freezing of commissions and the higher default affected the results which, for the time being, with anaesthetised inflation, will continue to be positive in real terms, but with the definite possibility of being downwards. In 2019 the margin for the financial system was 15%, and for private banks, it was 20%. In the first quarter of 2020 that margin reduced to 14% for the financial system and 16% for private banks. In the last two quarters, the weight of income from BCRA’s remunerated assets (passes and Leliq) in the financial margin was 65% and 75%, in each case.
To start “normalizing” the debt situation whose payments postponed until December 31st, the Ministry of Economy announced a new voluntary exchange of the remainders of Letes, Lelink, AF20 and TV21 for two Boncer with terms in 2023 and 2024, an operation that, if completed in an integrated manner, could exchange maturities for $6.91 billion.
The improved proposal would move from a six-month scheme, starting in September 2021, to the previously announced annual plan beginning in March 2022. The new bonds will maintain the original terms in 2025, the same interest rate of 8.5% but will be amortized in eight semi-annual instalments, beginning September 23, 2021. An increase in cash payments for early bird investors included from $100 in cash and $950 in new bonds for every 1000 bonds issued to a unique combination of $125 in cash and $925 in new bonds. Those entering the swap in the second term – July 17-30 – will receive a $50 cash payment and the same bonus for $950.
Argentina decided to suspend exports of lemons to the European Union for the rest of 2020 due to the appearance of a disease called black spot, which affects citrus fruits. Argentina is the leading supplier of fresh lemons to the European Union. In 2019, 126,863 tons exported to the EU, 54% of total exports to the world. Argentina’s share of the European market is around 25% of the total. To date, approximately 100,000 tons of Argentine lemons have already entered the European Union for $90 million. This fact will have a strong negative impact on producers and exporters, as well as on Argentina due to the foreign exchange earnings it will no longer receive.