According to data released this Wednesday by the INDEC, both indicators fell in the year-on-year comparison and also concerning July. The industrial activity fell in August 7.1% compared to the same month last year and fell 0.9% compared to July 2020. Construction in August marked a decline of 17.7% in year-on-year terms and a decrease of 1% about last July.
The leading banks in the world stated that they see a complicated panorama for Argentina due to the fiscal deficit, monetary issue and low global growth. A projected 12.8% fall for Argentina will be the second-worst in the Latin American region, which on average would suffer a recession of 8.4%. A report by the Institute of International Finance highlighted the risks facing the economy if an IMF-supported medium-term program is not achieved.
The rating agency Moody's warned that credit risks in Argentina remain high, due to the deepening economic contraction that began in 2018. The challenging macroeconomic environment, which includes high inflation, low liquidity and low credit availability, is likely to continue to affect various debt issuers. By the end of Q1 2021, Argentina's economy will have lost more than $100 billion in value, or 14.5% of GDP, as recorded three years ago. No losses are forecast beyond the 35%-65% range associated with Argentina's current sovereign 'Ca' rating.
The indebtedness in pesos of companies and families through the financial system grew by 50.1% in the last year and exceeded the inflation of the previous 12 months, driven by an increase of 94.5% in commercial loans and 64.7% in credit card operations, according to a report by First Capital Group based on data from the Central Bank.
The financing, through green bonds, started in Argentina in 2017. And so far this year, there have been issues for about $ 100 million. Green bonds are negotiable securities used to finance projects, in whole or in part, with social and environmental benefits or a combination of both. Since they began, the amounts issued in the country exceed $610 million.
September tax revenues grew by about 5.5% year-on-year in real terms, higher than inflation for the first time this year. In nominal terms, the State obtained revenues of 606,508 million pesos ($7.89 bn), which meant an increase of 43.7% compared to the same month in 2019 against inflation estimated at around 40%.
In the last 12 months, real wage decline is 6.9%. In that period, the total wage index showed a growth of 32.6% while prices rose 42.4%. INDEC released the data for July, which concerning the same month in 2017, real wages accumulated a drop of 20.3%. Unemployment was 7.2% in 2017, at the beginning of 2020 rose to 10.4%, and in the second quarter, it rose to 13.1%.
International investment in the second quarter of this year reached $330.02 billion, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (Indec). Of that total, $228.26 billion correspond to 'Other investments', which represent the total savings that Argentines have outside the local banking system. This, for example, includes funds that citizens with local residence have in bank accounts in the United States, Spain, Brazil, Uruguay or any other country.
Argentina's Central Bank said that it would allow a managed float of the peso currency and abandon its current "uniform daily devaluation" strategy. The move comes with the gap between the official exchange rate and the exchange rate quoted in the country's informal currency markets close to 93% due to the distrust of investors and strong black market demand for dollars.
In September, grain exporters sold off $1.787 billion, 14% less than in the same month in 2019, according to a report by the Argentine Oil Industry Chamber (Ciara) and the Center of Grain Exporters (CEC). In the first nine months of this year, exports reached $15.133 billion, 12.68% less than in the same period in 2019.