On December 10, Alberto Fernández takes the helm of a country facing its worst stock market rout in decades, 55% inflation, a deep economic recession, rising poverty and a plunging currency. Argentina is staring down the barrel of $100 billion in foreign debt, including a record $57 billion loan from the IMF. The country is now running out of money.
Argentina’s fiscal deficit has become a cronic problem. According to a study of the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF), in the period 2016 – 2019 Argentina will accumulate a $112.3 billion. The study said that in 52 of the last 59 years the country ended with a fiscal deficit.
Given Argentina’s financial history over many decades, a restructuring deal that scares off investors would seem to be the best option for Argentina. It might even scare away high-risk bond speculators, says Richard Erb, former IMF former deputy managing director.
“Mauricio Macri’s cabinet is one of the largest in Latin America, and also since the return of democracy in Argentina since 1983,” according to a study by the Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (Cippec) . The conclusion is part of the study entitled “State GPS-Radiography and balance of the National Public Administration 2015–2019. The vicious circle between fiscal deterioration and the poor development of state capacities”.
Everyone expects changes in political and economic relations between Brazil and Argentina once Alberto Fernández takes power in December. Foreign affairs analyst Marcelo Elizondo believes that Bolsonaro’s threat to lower common external tariff, which would cost Argentina its position as a privileged trading partner, is part of Brazilian conservative president’s program to open the Brazilian market, with the EU free-trade deal being “merely a step toward positioning itself as a continental leader.” That would represent an enormous competitive disadvantage for Argentina as it loses its exclusive, preferential tariff regime with Brazil.
Argentina’s President-elect is hosting the second meeting of the Puebla Group at the Emperor Hotel in Buenos Aires from today until Sunday. 32 progressists leaders from 12 countries attend the gathering under the motto “Change is progressivism”.
None of the leaders in global finance gathering this week at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut showed disrespect for Argentina despite being on the brink of another default. “I love Argentina, actually,” says Timothy Barrett, CIO of the Texas Tech University System endowment, while Rebecca Braeu, head of international research and strategies for Nationwide Investments states “I’d hold Argentina for now”.
Banco BBVA Argentina S.A net income totaled $11.1 billion in 3Q19 according to the last consolidated results for the third quarter (3Q19), ended on September 30th 2019. This result was 63.8% higher than the $6.8 billion posted on the second quarter 2019 (2Q19) and 264.6% higher than the $3.0 billion posted on the third quarter 2018 (3Q18).
Industrial manufacturing production contracted 5.1% in September compared to the same month last year, according to the latest report from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec). In the same period construction collapsed 8.5%. The industrial manufacturing production index (IPI) accumulates a contraction of 7.8% in the nine months of 2019, which means 17 consecutive months with year-on-year falls.
First payments are due on December 28 and together with the “Discount” bonds add up to almost $ 600 million for which the new government will be forced to use reserves. The schedule of debt payments will accelerate in the last 45 days of the year from tomorrow when they expire $ 290 million in interest of the ‘Bond 24’. This will be the main explanation of falling reserves in the coming weeks.