Fernández vs Bolsonaro: Argentina-Brazil Trade Now At Risk

Everyone expects changes in political and economic relations between Brazil and Argentina once Alberto Fernández takes power in December. Foreign affairs analyst Marcelo Elizondo believes that Bolsonaro’s threat to lower common external tariff, which would cost Argentina its position as a privileged trading partner, is part of Brazilian conservative president’s program to open the Brazilian market, with the EU free-trade deal being “merely a step toward positioning itself as a continental leader.” That would represent an enormous competitive disadvantage for Argentina as it loses its exclusive, preferential tariff regime with Brazil.

Greenwich Economic Forum shows confidence in Argentina

None of the leaders in global finance gathering this week at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut showed disrespect for Argentina despite being on the brink of another default. “I love Argentina, actually,” says Timothy Barrett, CIO of the Texas Tech University System endowment, while Rebecca Braeu, head of international research and strategies for Nationwide Investments states “I’d hold Argentina for now”.

BBVA Argentina’s net income increased 264,6% in a year

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A net income totaled $11.1 billion in 3Q19 according to the last consolidated results for the third quarter (3Q19), ended on September 30th 2019. This result was 63.8% higher than the $6.8 billion posted on the second quarter 2019 (2Q19) and 264.6% higher than the $3.0 billion posted on the third quarter 2018 (3Q18).

Industrial production contracts 5,1% and construction falls 8,5%

Industrial manufacturing production contracted 5.1% in September compared to the same month last year, according to the latest report from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec). In the same period construction collapsed 8.5%. The industrial manufacturing production index (IPI) accumulates a contraction of 7.8% in the nine months of 2019, which means 17 consecutive months with year-on-year falls.

Controversial “Centennial” bonds: first challenge for Alberto Fernández

First payments are due on December 28 and together with the “Discount” bonds add up to almost $ 600 million for which the new government will be forced to use reserves. The schedule of debt payments will accelerate in the last 45 days of the year from tomorrow when they expire $ 290 million in interest of the ‘Bond 24’. This will be the main explanation of falling reserves in the coming weeks.

Goat farmers at climate change frontline in Argentina’s wine belt

Climate change has considerably affected goat breeders scattered along the Andes foothills and altered the entire cycle of life in the region. Drought, cold, and lack of pasture have decimated herds in contrasts with the robustness of Mendoza’s central and northern vineyards, where sophisticated irrigation systems have helped to absorb some of the shock of climate change.

Bondholders warn Argentina not to make debt ‘uninvestable’

Some of Argentina’s biggest bondholders are building up a unified front with more than two dozen other bondholders to negotiate with the incoming government led by Alberto Fernandez over roughly $50 bn they are owed in sovereign debt. “No one wants to be in court another decade. The more losses Alberto Fernández tries to impose upon creditors, the more likely we are to end up in that situation again”, warned one of their representatives.

Capital flight: around $1.82 billion a month in the last 4 years in Argentina

In the first year of the Government, the “formation of external assets of the non-financial private sector” (FAE), which is commonly known as “hoarding” and some call “flight or capital outflow” because they are resources that leave the system was $ 9.951 billion. In 2017 the FAE amounted to $ 22.148 billion and in 2018, with an exchange crisis and IMF assistance, it reached $ 27.230 billion. Therefore, after 46 months of management, considering December 2015, the FAE amounts to $ 84.102 billion, about $ 1.828 billion per month.